Europe: In or out?

On 23 June the nation will decide whether Britain should remain as part of the European Union or whether it should leave. But what will it all mean for Liverpool – a city which has been noted for its popularity amongst property investors, is an ongoing destination of choice for students across the UK and overseas, and is currently a hub of new housing developments?

We caught up with a range of experts on Liverpool’s property market and prominent city developers to get their views on whether we should be in or out of the EU, and how the vote could have an impact.

 

Elliot Lawless 

Director of property developer Elliot Group, which has prominent projects underway in Liverpool’s Wolstenholme Square and the Baltic Triangle

“I’m firmly in the remain camp. The referendum has created flux in the market and we’ve seen a slight slowing up of investment sentiment for UK property assets whilst some investors sit out the referendum period.

“If the vote ends up being for Brexit then that period of uncertainty will continue whilst investors wait to see which way the wind blows during exit negotiations.

“Conversely, if the outcome is remain then I’m expecting the tap to be turned right back on and we’ll see a mini boom as projects get kickstarted. That has to be good for the region.”

 

Louis Anastasiou

Managing director of Liverpool estate and lettings agency Andrew Louis, which has branches in and out of the city centre

“If we vote to remain in the EU it will be back to business relatively quickly and the Liverpool property market will continue to prosper due to growing population, increase in tourism and strong demand.

“If we vote out I don’t think anyone has quite worked out what that means other than uncertainty.

“Maybe Brexit may result in lower property prices if immigration from Europe fell.”

 

Steve Barber

Managing director of Merseyside-based Bridging Finance Solutions, which provides short-term finance to property developers and investors

“Major firms from across the world come to the UK to access Europe’s single market, bringing with them jobs and investment. While Brexit may not be ruinous for the UK economy, it does risk damaging the UK-based financial services sector, particularly over the short term, potentially delaying investment and lending decisions in the region and reducing activity. It also threatens the overall competitiveness of the UK as a place to do business.

“It’s this suggestion of delaying investment decisions and reducing activity which may be most damaging to the financial service industry and the UK’s position as a global economics hub.

“Will foreign funders want to maintain a ‘European’ presence in a country outside of the EU? If not, this will potentially reduce liquidity for the UK property market at large and the Merseyside region.”

 

George Downing

Founder of the Downing property group, which is behind developments including prominent student accommodation sites in the city

“My feeling is that the UK should be in charge of its own destiny – so I am in favour of an exit.

“I accept there would be some disruption in the short term to my company and the markets we operate in.  But we have to take a longer term view of our own best interests.

“I think the Brussels empire costs a fortune and does not represent our interests particularly well. It is too bureaucratic and too legislative. If we do stay in, that needs to change.

“I reject the idea that we’d struggle to trade with European partners or anyone else.  Switzerland does well enough – and the Germans will still want to sell us BMWs and Mercedes.  That said, the key here is that whether as a country we decide to stay or leave it is the uncertainty that unsettles the investment market. So the sooner this issue is resolved the better. ”

 

Dan Pennington

Director of Century 21, which has estate and lettings agency branches in both North and South Liverpool

“Particularly when it comes to the housing and mortgage markets, I think you have to trust the judgement of those who should have all the information at their fingertips to understand the full implications.

“While the ‘leave’ campaign might call it “scaremongering” when you hear the Bank of England governor talking about potential negative impacts – falling house prices, mortgage costs rising, growing unemployment, drops in sterling, and the rest – you have to take notice.

“I have no doubt the housing and mortgage market in Liverpool, like the rest of the UK, would eventually recover should the UK vote for Brexit but it’s my view that the short and medium term uncertainty it will deliver could have a noticeable negative impact.

“Like many, I believe this decision could change our sector for many years to come and for that reason I’d choose the status quo of ‘remain’. This would give us the certainty that we have the freedom to grow and develop our businesses and market without wondering how the UK’s new and highly-changed position in Europe and the world might affect us all.”

 

Danielle Joyce

Development manager of Merseyside-based housing developer Forth Homes

”If Britain leaves the EU it could have a huge impact on the housing market and construction industry.

“We would expect the population to decrease over years due to changes in immigration, which could lead to less demand in housing resulting in reduced rental values and property prices in the short term.

“However, lack of investment from overseas could pose danger for developers therefore impacting on the construction industry as a whole.

“If the construction industry slows down due to a lack of funds, in years to come we could see a shortage of skilled tradesmen and new housing stock which could then cause house prices to soar.

“It’s difficult to predict every outcome at this stage as the impact of Brexit on the property market would depend upon its impact on the economy as a whole.

“However there is no doubt that it will cause an air of uncertainty for investors, builders and buyers trying to operate within the industry.”